Before It’s Too Late: Reimagine New Zealand’s Military Future (2025)

NZ at a crossroads: the Defence Capability Plan2025

After 500 years of almost incessant violenceacross the globe, Western countries are now rushing toincrease military spending, New Zealand being thelatest.

Just Defence, a Wellington-based defencepolicy group, is calling on the government to freezespending on defence and urgently reassess New Zealand’splace in a rapidly changing world. This comes as theGovernment has just announced a massive hike in defencespending as part of the 2025 Defence Capability Plan (DCP)– $9 billion of new money over the next fouryears.

To put it in perspective, Defence cost NewZealand about $6 billion in 2024-2025. That is more than wespent on Justice, Corrections, Conservation, and Policecombined. The extra $9 billion dwarfs that and comes at atime when the government says we can’t even afford to givechildrendecent school lunches.

We also need to appreciatethat our military is increasingly equipped and configured toslot into a U.S.-led coalition of powers that is first andforemost focused on achieving US strategic goals (containingChina).

Just Defence says the public needs to beconsulted and we don’t need to be rushed into this. Hitthe pause button. The time to do that is now, prior to theBudget in May.

New Zealand stands at a defence policycrossroads

The whole world has been stopped in itstracks by the seismic geopolitical events triggered by theU.S. government.

“The government may notwant the world to change but it has,” Kevin Hackwell fromJust Defence says. “Under Donald Trump’s erraticleadership the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally. What isequally important is that China, our greatest tradingpartner, offers no credible threat to NewZealand.”

The Defence Capability Plan(DCP) makes clear, however, that New Zealand sees China asthe problem. The Plan suffers from a myopic view of theworld masquerading as analysis. Itstates:

“China’s assertive pursuit of itsstrategic objectives is the principal driver for strategiccompetition in the Indo-Pacific, and it continues to use allof its tools of statecraft in ways that can challenge bothinternational norms of behaviour and the security of otherstates. Of particular concern is the rapid andnon-transparent growth of China’s militarycapability.”

The DCP references the recentexpedition south by the Chinese navy but doesn’tacknowledge our contribution to tensions by New Zealand andAustralian warships sailing through the Taiwan Strait or,far more significantly, Australia basing US B52 and B2nuclear-capable bombers at Tindal and the decision to builda fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines to support theUS in the South China Sea.

Defence Minister JudithCollins recognizes that the world is inherently moredangerous today; what she fails to acknowledge is that theAnglosphere, led by the US, is the number one cause of theproblem on virtually every corner of the globe. Genocide inGaza, bombing in multiple countries, including Yemen,threats to Greenland, Canada, Panama, Iran, China andelsewhere all come from the U.S.

A more realisticthreat assessment is needed

Elements of thegovernment’s analysis are valid but the complete absenceof any honest appraisal of US determination to maintainhegemony, contain China’s economic and strategic rise, byforce if necessary, and New Zealand’s decision to see ourgreatest trading partner as a future enemy, all smack ofanalysis-lite, rhetoric-heavy. It is worth recalling thatChina has not fought a war since 1979 whereas the US hasfought endless wars in the same period.

“Yet ourmilitary,” Kevin Hackwell says, “is absolutely designedto be part of the U.S. fighting World War III againstChina,” Hackwell says. “It’s time to imagine somethingbetter suited to defending Aotearoa than helping projectU.S. power in the South China Sea.”

DefenceCapability Plan and the 2025 Budget

In thePlan, the government has deferred the decision as towhether to replace our two frigates for the next few yearsand this is a welcome move. The primary role of our frigatesis to form the outer edge of a US aircraft carrier battlegroup.

The increases in spending are spread across arange of areas: digital modernisation, science and tech,cyber capabilities, long-range remotely piloted aircraft,helicopters, planes, Javelin missiles, uncrewed surveillancevessels, and a sustainment programme for the frigates.Strong arguments can be made for an upgrade in some areas;the scale of the spend is what is most disturbing.

Ashift towards a more independent defencesetting

Peace activist Marie Russell managed todiscombobulate Foreign Minister Winston Peters simply bystanding silently with a placard last year at a foreignaffairs lecture in Parliament Buildings. She says ourmilitary spending is already out of control andmisallocated.

“We really need to reassess our placein the world,” she says. “It seems to me, the safestplace, the most secure place for us, is to be non-aligned,to have an independent foreign policy. We need to stop andhave a serious public discussion about what security is allabout and what is the nature of the real threats that weface.“

Marie Russell says at some point we have todecide: are we going to prepare for war on behalf of the USAagainst China - our major trading partner – or are wegoing to fix the water pipes and give our children a propereducation?

“I would like to see thepipes fixed. I'd like to see the transport systems fixed. Iwould like to see the degradation of the environment fixed.There's so much that needs doing urgently to make life goodin our country. Spending yet more money on defence justseems unnecessary,” Russell says.

MikeSmith, another member of Just Defence, says it is worthrecalling the stronger, more independent stances New Zealandhas taken in the past. These notably include the Kirkgovernment sending a navy ship to Mururoa to supportGreenpeace protests against nuclear testing, and the Langegovernment’s decision not to allow the visit of the USSBuchanan because of the U.S. “neither confirm nor deny”policy. This ultimately led to the end of NZ participationin ANZUS; a price, Smith says, that was worth paying.Similarly, the Clark government’s decision to not sendtroops to support the American war in Iraq was proven soundand principled.

The Just DefenceAlternative

Just Defence, founded amid the successful1980s nuclear-free push, envisions a military that “youdon’t use offensively, you use to protect yourselves.”The group proposes:

Non-alignment.

Investment inbetter civil defence/ emergency management.

Maintainadequate shipping, aircraft, and technology to protectfisheries and support Pacific neighbours.

Support andaid to Pacific island nations This is important to AotearoaNew Zealand as a good Pacific neighbour.

Showleadership for peace. As a small and geographically isolatedcountry, we have shone in international affairs throughmoral leadership, for example our successful “guitars notguns” peacekeeping role in Bougainville.

JustDefence says now is the time to renew our independentforeign policy and focus on the real threats to oursecurity. I couldn't agree more.

Eugene Doyle is awriter based in Wellington. He has written extensively onthe Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in theAsia Pacific region. He hosts the public policy platformsolidarity.co.nz.

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